It’ll Take a Thief … or a Magician.
What more can be said about the Miami Heat’s defense of its 2007 NBA Championship? It has been lackluster, uninspiring, and hardly worthy of the Heat’s lament that they haven’t been shown the respect usually bestowed upon NBA champions. In the annals of team sports history, the greatest champions are defined by their ability to win multiple championships. Not since Houston won the second of its two championships in 1995 with a 47-35 record (good enough for only sixth seed in the Western Conference) has an NBA team put together such an average season in defense of its title as the Miami Heat. However, like Houston, Miami seeks to become only the second team in NBA history to overcome the lack of home court advantage against four opponents en route to a repeat NBA title.
Boasting one of the best coaches in NBA history, the most dominant big man of his era, and arguably the best multi-faceted guard in the game today, this could easily have been a fifty-plus win season for the Heat. But with an aging Shaquille O’Neal, a motley crew of self-satisfied misfits, and a naive superstar in Dwyane Wade, heavy are the heads that wear the crown. Wade, who grew up watching his hometown Bulls win two three-peats, was certainly up to the challenge of defending his newly minted hardware, but Shaq had a different agenda. The Diesel knew his aging body could not take the grind of an 82-game season if he hoped to be effective in the post season, so he left Wade to shoulder the burden of carrying the Heat — a near fatal mistake. What resulted was one of the most dysfunctional imbalances ever witnessed in championship-level team lore. To their credit, the Heat did a credible job of maintaining order by keeping its dirty laundry in-house, save Riley’s public lambasting of both James Posey and Antoine Walker for failing to meet the team’s body fat standards. Unfortunately, all came crashing down when Riley also took sick leave to address long-ailing knee and hip issues. It appeared for certain the Heat’s season was headed for doom as few gave Miami the slightest chance of finishing the season with a winning record let alone qualifying for the post season. Without a doubt, finishing with a 44-38 mark and the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference is a testament to the same sort of prestidigitation that helped this ragtag group of “15-strong” capture the 2006 NBA title.
Now faced with the challenge of winning a championship without home court advantage, the Heat must work like a thief in the night if it plans to steal consecutive NBA titles in as many years.
VS. 
(44-38) (49-33)
The primary question here is can Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich take down Dwyane Wade? To do so, both must be consistent threats from long-range, thereby forcing Miami to extend its defense to the three-point arc.
Hinrich typically guards Wade as tough as anyone in the league. Combine this with Flash’s notoriously poor performances in front of his hometown Chicago faithful, one would think the backcourt edge tilts solidly to the Bulls. However, of all the Predators to grace the BDG board, Wade has shown, more than any other guard, the ability to take down two or more Hunters at a time with fearless, almost wrecklees abandon. Nevertheless, if Miami is to win this series, Wade will have to take it strong to the hole where a phalanx of stout-breasted Bulls will await him.
As a helpmate, Jason Williams must establish consistency from 3 or Chicago will double-team Wade into oblivion. Second, Williams must resist his propensity to jack up wild shots at inopportune times, as not only does it destroy the Heat’s fragile rhythm, but it also leads to huge momentum shifts as well. Finally, Eddie Jones (perhaps the x-factor) must remain a consistent threat from downtown if the Heat are to dispatch of the young Bulls in anything short of seven games.
Conversely, Hinrich must run the Bulls offense with poise and skill. He must look to set up his teammates first, instead of launching ill-advised 3s that lead to easy transition buckets for a Miami team that typically gets few. Instead, Hinrich must work to get Gordon the ball in his sweet sports as consistently as possible. However, if Gordon struggles, or if Miami is able to lock him down defensively, the Bulls will be in for a short series.
VS. 
(41-41) (47-36)
“I’m here to play.” “I’m a professional.” “I get paid to play.” “Why wouldn’t I play.” … Such was the mantra of Vince Carter prior to his acrimonious split with the Toronto Raptors on December 17, 2004.
Today, Carter is teamed with backcourt mate Jason Kidd the active triple-double leader in the NBA. On paper, this duo is considered one of the most prolific backcourts in the Eastern Conference. Projected to win the Atlantic Division at the outset of the season, the Nets languished outside the playoff picture before a strong end-of-season run helped them to secure the number six seed. To defeat the Raptors, Carter must be a literal man-child in every facet of his game — from draining 3s to attacking the rim with thunder. In tandem, Kidd must post double-digit scoring, and match it with high assists totals and rebounds to negate the impact of Toronto’s T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon.
Conversely, the Raptors boast an impressive core of 1s and 2s to throw at New Jersey’s jaded backcourt. Each is capable of hitting from long range, with Anthony Parker being the most deadly. Toronto’s versatility gives them the ability to penetrate the lane at will to set up the team’s impressive inside-out perimeter game.
T.J. Ford is as quick a guard as you’ll find in the league today. A bit erratic with his jumper, Ford is most effective when setting up Chris Bosh from mid-range. Backup point guard Jose Calderon is probably a more reliable floor manager than Ford but he doesn’t attack the seams nearly as effectively. However, if T.J. struggles establishing the two-man game, he can burn opponents from 3, and if you guard him too tightly, he can put the ball on the floor to get to the basket. Deep threats Juan Dixon and Morris Peterson raise havoc for defenders by hitting shots opponents foolishly dare them to make.
vs. 
(41-41) (50-32)
On paper this is a cakewalk for the Cavaliers. But for a team that lacks strong on-floor leadership, Cleveland could actually play right into Washington’s overwhelmed hands. Lebron James‘ playmaking has become much better of late, however, he’ll need his teammates to knock down open looks at a high percentage if his growth is to continue. Unfortunately, Larry Hughes cannot be counted on to supply consistency from the perimeter, and neither can Sasha Pavlovic. To the Cavs further detriment, both get caught up in watching LBJ use his superior size and strength for his rim rattling dunks. For the Cavs to become legitimate title contenders this must change. Both Hughes and Pavlovic must be equally aggressive in driving to the rim as well as in nailing jump shots from 16 to 25 feet.
For the Wizards, the game plan is much simpler — play with nothing to lose. DeShawn Stevenson is a capable scorer. He can have an even bigger impact on the defensive end if he’s able to lock up Hughes or Pavlovic for extended periods of time. In fact, Stevenson must make a commitment to defense if he is to help the Wizards win a game or two in this series.
In the end, the Wizards will only go as far as Antonio Daniels‘ grit, savvy, and veteran leadership carries them. Daniels brings solid championship mettle to Washington from his days with San Antonio. The problem is, while Arenas was the major focal point of the Wizards offense, Daniels only averaged 7.1 ppg in the regular season. So unless Antonio manages to quadruple his scoring, the Wizards stand scant chance of defeating the Cavaliers.
vs. 
(40-42) (53-29)
Here is yet another match-up that on paper looks like a landslide. However, Orlando closed the season more like a two-seed than an eight-seed. Combine this with the fact that Detroit has not played prototypical Piston’s defense all season and you have a series that could provide a little intrigue.
Chauncey Billups only recently regained his big-shot form, while Rip Hamilton isn’t the mid-range force he once was. Nonetheless, Detroit’s backcourt is far superior to anything the Magic offer in opposition.
Grant Hill is the only guard of note for Orlando, as both Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo were dropped from the BDG board months ago for inconsistency. This places even more pressure on the aging Hill and his surgically repaired ankle. Despite the fact that there’s no animosity between the Pistons and Hill. Nevertheless, it would be sweet redemption for Hill to help the young Magic knock off his former team.
vs. 
(51-31) (52-30)
For all his great play over the years, it is hard to believe that straight-from-high-school-to-the-pros star Tracy McGrady has never made it out of the first round of the playoffs. Could this be his year? Not if Deron Williams has a say.
Williams is a smooth operator at the point. In an era where specialized floor leaders are a rarity, Deron’s floor management is a throwback to the Stockton era. The young guard possesses great floor vision, deft passing, a credible jump shot, along with a solid understanding of how to make his teammates better. The problem is, he doesn’t have much help in the backcourt. Derek Fisher is still a capable guard with championship pedigree, but he is only a 38% shooter and an even paltrier 30% from 3-point land. Without a strong post presence, Fisher will be hard-pressed to put up the kind of numbers necessary to offset the backcourt production of McGrady, Rafer Alston, and Luther Head. But if Fisher can find the hot hand, and sustain it, the Jazz just might pull off a mild upset.
With Jerry Sloan rumored to be contemplating retirement, the Jazz could be motivated to make a deep playoff run — a matter made more problematic by the team’s faltering play down the stretch which cost them home court advantage in the first round. As a result, the Jazz will find getting by Houston a tall, tall order. But not impossible. However, when factoring in Yao Ming’s 7′6″ post presence, and defeating the Rockets becomes an even higher mountain to climb.
vs. 
(45-37) (58-24)
Perhaps no team enters the post season on a stronger note than the San Antonio Spurs. Throw in their years of championship experience and it is easy to understand why most don’t give the Nuggets a chance.
For Denver, the question that begs to be answered is, “Who will lead?” Allen Iverson has been to the NBA Finals, but that was eons ago. And Carmelo Anthony’s leadership and maturity has been an issue ever since he entered the league. So what can two stars, both with suspect leadership skills, do to upset the title hopes of a rock solid San Antonio Spurs team? How ’bout nothing, especially when you consider that J.R. Smith’s playing time has decreased significantly since he returned from injury. Nevertheless, if Smith can light it up from the perimeter at anywhere near his 44% shooting average, he could become an effective weapon to negate the production of the Spurs all-star guard, Manu Ginobili. Does Smith, who has had immaturity issues since entering the league, have the poise and confidence to outplay Ginobili on the game’s grandest stage? I hardly think so.
Tony Parker is as steady and reliable as ever. With hip and other injuries now behind him, Parker’s steady dribble and lightning quick lane penetrations will more than offset anything the trigger happy Iverson brings to the battle. For Denver to have even the slightest chance in this series, they’ll have to hope San Antonio’s notorious whining over officiating becomes such a cacophony that the NBA tunes them and their title aspirations out completely.
vs. 
(42-40) (61-21)
This is without question the best guard match-up of the first round, pitting Kobe Bryant’s scoring prowess against Steve Nash’s masterful floor orchestration.
As we’ve come to know, Nash is brilliant as knowing how to get his teammates involved. Conversely, Bryant has yet to learn how to make his teammates better. As a result, the Lakers have such a one-sided imbalance in the backcourt that Smush Parker and Maurice Evans easily get lost in the throws of Bryant’s magnificent scoring binges. With a match-up against Phoenix’s tough-minded defensive specialist Raja Bell on the horizon, Kobe would be wise to utilize the offensive skills of his underused but capable teammates. Nevertheless, if the “Brazilian Blur” Leandro Barbosa has anything to say about it, the Suns will be seeking to make quick work of Kobe and his overachieving Lakers.
vs. 
(42-40) (67-15)
Much has been made of Don Nelson’s less than amicable split with Mavs owner Mark Cuban.
Having lost five consequence regular season meetings to the Warriors, one wonders how much of a psychological impact this has had on Avery Johnson and his anxious soldiers? If there is one glaring weakness in the Dallas Mavericks game it is their starting backcourt. With so much offense running through Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, and Devin Harris are not counted upon to deliver huge offensive numbers for Dallas. Whereas Terry usually steps up in the post season, Harris is just starting to figure things out. It is said that Avery considers young Devin the best defensive guard in the league as a result of his ability to take charges and play pressure defense. However, the bigger x-factor for Dallas is Jerry Stackhouse who must continue to knock down mid-range and long-range jumpers in pressure packed situations. But rest assured, Stack is more than capable.
On the flip side, perhaps no four guards have done more to disrupt Dallas’ synergy from an offensive standpoint than Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Monta Ellis, and Stephen Jackson. Like the team did in last season’s NBA Finals, Dallas continues to struggle mightily to shutdown high-powered, multi-faceted guards. Nonetheless, look for the banged up Davis — a more freewheeling version of Steve Nash — to make more than his fair share of big plays in crucial situations to keep Dallas on its heels. If he does, look for things to get mighty dicey for Big ‘D’.
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